We anticipate meaningful volumes of shale gas production

Caspian Energy (CE): Mr. Sieminski, what is your forecast for the energy balance of the USA over the coming decade?

Adam Sieminski, Administrator of the Energy Information Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy: EIA projects that U.S. primary energy consumption will continue to hold relatively steady at about 100 quadrillion British thermal units (QBtu) over the next decade. Meanwhile, U.S. production of energy has been growing strongly over the past 10 years, although use continues to exceed domestic production. In 2014 EIA estimates that about 15 QBtu of energy is imported (mostly oil), but by 2025 this amount shrinks to approximately 5 QBtu. Renewables and natural gas lead the rise in U.S. primary energy use, but the fossil fuel share of total energy use continues to hover near ¾ of overall consumption. 

The U.S. is already a net exporter of coal, nearly self-sufficient in total electricity, and is likely to be a net exporter of natural gas around 2017. The United States is a net exporter of petroleum products, but is still a large (but declining) importer of crude oil. Although some authors refer contemplatively to the idea of “energy independence”, the term self-sufficiency is probably a better descriptor. The oil markets tend to be global in nature and net import dependence is only one measure of security.